Will Thailand get an EU red card?

Political powers at play

Another factor at play is Thailand’s internal political situation. Since a 2014 coup d’etat by the Thai military, the country has been riven and polarized by political upheaval that attracted much of the attention of the country’s leadership. While preserving the health of the seafood industry – a major piece of Thailand’s economy – which is vitally important to the country, the military junta’s foremost priority is maintaining order, and its efforts along that front could be distracting from other work, Morrow said.

“Thailand is experiencing political upheaval and is receiving international pressure to restore a democratically elected government,” he said. “Paradoxically, I think having a military government in place can lead to more streamlined enforcement…and would be helpful in implementing regulations, using military force if necessary to gain rapid compliance with regulations. However, the government of Thailand and the people of Thailand are working through a complex process of restoring democracy and that is the sine qua non of any long-term relationship between Thailand and the E.U. or the U.S. for that matter.”

The bottom line, Morrow said, is the issuance of a red card to Thailand is “folly.”

“To issue a complete ban on Thai seafood products to Europe would be counterproductive for both sides,” he said. “It would further isolate Thailand, eliminate communication, at least initially between the E.U. and Thailand, and would further damage the country’s image on the world stage. In sum, it would do a lot more harm that it would ever do good. It would not lead to the advancement of the E.U.’s long-term agenda regarding sustainability and it specifically wouldn’t help in advancing human rights.”

A ban on Thai exports to Europe would simply roll the problems currently being tackled in Thailand onto other Southeast Asian countries “like squeezing a tube of toothpaste,” Morrow said.

“It would be like starting over from square one,” he said.

While Thailand’s seafood industry has been cooperating with the government, it must do more to help its government’s efforts, Morrow said.

“Solutions are always straightforward; it’s the implementation that’s the tricky part,” Morrow said. “While I think industry leaders are already taking an active role, we all need to do more by cooperating and working with the government of Thailand in gaining compliance. The industry needs to now step up and take a more active role in leading this effort to the successful conclusion of having the yellow card rescinded.”

What now?

As to whether Morrow believes the E.U. would actually follow through on its threat to issue a red card, he said, “Speculation is a really tough road.”

“I think the answer is: no one knows,” he said. “I just trust that the E.U. keeps its lines of communication open and that the government Thailand, along with industry leaders, will cooperate with the E.U. to avoid a red card.”

For my part, I think the E.U. has forced its own hand with the documents and emails that have been leaked to the international press. While I think the disruption to international trade would be extremely damaging to the global seafood economy, if Thailand makes any missteps or if it doesn’t move faster in its reforms, I think a red card may be inevitable.

I agree with Morrow and with senior Thai officials I’ve interviewed who argue that a red card would damage efforts to reform its seafood industry. At Seafood Expo Global in Brussels in April, I spoke with Major General Jaruvat Vaisaya, the Deputy Commissioner of the Thai Metropolitan Police Bureau, a leader in Thailand’s efforts to curb human rights abuses. He told me that his country will continue with its efforts even if a red card is issued.

“Despite what happens in regard to the carding process, Thailand will continue to address illegal practices of IUU, false labor and human trafficking in the fishing industry because we are determined to preserve marine resources and the long-term sustainability of the Thai fishing industry,” he said. “The journey we have undertaken is not because of the yellow card. We did all these reforms because it’s the right thing to do.”

If and when a red card is issued, the true effectiveness of both the E.U. and the Thai government’s policies and very systems of government will be tested. My sincerest hope is that the situation does not get pushed to that extreme.